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President to decide in event of hung LS

By Nitya Chakraborty. Dated: 5/18/2019 8:59:00 AM

Largest pre-poll alliance may get the advantage of first call

The trends from the polling in the last six phases of the Lok Sabha elections do suggest the emergence of a hung 17th Lok Sabha with neither NDA nor UPA getting anywhere near majority while the regional parties will be playing the key role in ensuring majority to any of the combinations. The exact position will be clear after May 23 when the results will be declared, but the situation can be accessed on the basis of a few possible scenarios.
There can be three scenarios. The NDA will be getting more than 200 as against 272 required for outright majority. This will place NDA in a comfortable position. The BJP with its massive resources and other tactics, is in a position to persuade some of the regional parties to support the NDA in forming the government headed by Narendra Modi. If NDA secures written support of the supporting parties soon after May 23, the President has no problem in calling the leader of the NDA in forming the Government under Article 75 of the Indian Constitution.
Under the second scenario, the UPA led by the Congress Party gets around 180 seats but less than the NDA .But the regional parties which are against BJP extend immediate support to the UPA with around 100 to 120 members for the formation of the new government. The President can call the leader of the UPA but he has to show firm support of the regional parties in writing for his bid to form the government. This has its parallel with the 2004 post Lok Sabha election scenario
As per the third scenario, the NDA is in minority, the UPA's figure is also low, but the regional parties altogether have more than 150 seats and they agree to set up a front with their leader. This group seeks the support of Congress from outside or as a partner to keep the BJP out of power at the centre. This will be a repeat of 1996 United Front scenario. This can be possible only if the UPA figure is much less than 150.
The role of the regional parties are very important in the post May 23 period and the Congress President Rahul Gandhi along with his senior leaders have to play a crucial role in expanding their support base among the regional parties. As of now, five regional parties, Trinamool Congress, TDP, Samajwadi Party, BSP and RLD are committed to contribute to the formation of a non -BJP government at the centre. Other regional parties such as TRS and BJD are yet to give firm support to a non-BJP government but Rahul can make use of Mamata and Chandrababu Naidu to persuade them for agreeing to a non BJP government at the centre. On that lines, talks can be held with Jagan Reddy of YSR Congress which is expected to get maximum seats in Lok Sabha elections from Andhra Pradesh.
If the BJP fares badly as the trends suggest and the NDA is much below the majority figure, the total mobilization of the regional parties have to be organized against a new BJP led government and the regional parties demands have to be met as a part of imparting a real federal character to the emerging non BJP government. In fact, Mamata and Naidu have to be the active players in organizing this regional parties mobilization against the BJP.
As far as the Constitutional position is concerned, Article 75 says that the President will appoint the Prime Minister and the other Cabinet ministers will be appointed by the President at the advice of the Prime Minister. Article 75 says that the President has to be satisfied that the council of ministers appointed by him enjoys the majority of the new Lok Sabha. The President is duty bound to find out the number of members supporting the person who has staked his claim for PM. In a scenario, where there is a clear majority for a pre poll coalition, there is no problem, but the Constitutional position regarding the first call is not clear in case of a hung Lok Sabha.
There is another aspect. In state assemblies, the Governor can invite a political party leader in a hung house and ask him to prove his majority within a period of time. But in Lok Sabha, the rules of Procedures presume that once the PM is appointed by the President, he enjoys confidence of the house until he is voted out through a non confidence motion. So, if the President invites Narendra Modi to form the next government as the leader of the NDA, there is no need for him to move a confidence motion. But if he has no majority, he can be removed by a non confidence motion.
The best course for the Congress and the regional parties is to move fast track after May 23 in case of a hung house so that the NDA can not convert its minority into majority by enticing the regional parties. The anti BJP regional parties should discuss with the Congress and keep the support letter ready either way so that the Congress plus the anti-BJP regional parties outnumber the NDA and that has to be sent to the President immediately. Then the president will have no option but to call the combination of UPA and regional parties. All depends on the final outcome on May 23.
—(IPA service)