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Major quake lurking beneath J&K

Pallavi Sareen. Dated: 7/22/2018 11:13:12 AM

JAMMU, Jul 21: Probability of a major earthquake of 8 to 9 Richter scale hitting Jammu and Kashmir has increased since the pressure has been building up in the rocks due to the continuous collision of the tectonic plates.
Though it is not possible to predict the epicentre of the earthquake or its exact magnitude because such technology has not been developed, geologists say that the entire Himalayan belt has fault lines which have been building up pressure for a long time. The more pressure that is released by these fault lines, the higher will be the magnitude of the earthquake and damage caused by it.
Geologists are of the belief that the earthquake will be of a high magnitude and Jammu and Kashmir falling in the Seismic Zone 4 and 5 will be vulnerable to damage. Geologists believe that after the Kangra earthquake in 1905 and the Muzaffarabad earthquake in 2005, there have been no major earthquakes and so the energy buildup is there in the rocks.
“When there is building up of such energy and pressure within rocks, then there is obviously possibility of a major earthquake- 7 or 7+ maybe but for the time being we don't have prediction mechanism, any technology or instrument to predict an earthquake and also to locate the epicenter where it might happen,” said Professor S.K Pandita, Geologist in Jammu University.
He explained the basic geology of earthquakes and the pent-up pressure in the fault lines in Jammu and Kashmir by saying, “So the tectonic plate collision began 50 million years ago and is continuing even still. Earlier there was a sea in between but the plates moved closer and closer together and collided. One of the plates moved up, the other moved down. But it is not easily coming up because of pressure on both sides. So because of that pressure, folds are formed and those are our mountains. But when the folds become tighter, they break down and become faults. Jammu and Kashmir also has those fault lines. And these fault lines always have movement. This movement is basically the pressure. What happens when the plates move is that, they exert pressure on the rocks and everything has a capacity to resist to some extent. But the argument here is there is some limit to the resistance of the rocks. The moment the limit crosses, the rocks break down. And when the rocks break down, there is the fault of the plates, the rocks move up and down and there is an earthquake. That magnitude of the earthquake depends upon how much pressure rocks have released. If the rocks release more pressure, there will be more breaking of the rocks and the earthquake will be of high magnitude. That is how it happens.”
He also said, “Jammu and Kashmir falls in seismic zone 4 and 5 and so we expect major earthquakes in the region. We might have smaller earthquakes 3,4,5 and up to 6 on Richter scale but major earthquake like 7.5 is also a possibility.”
He further said, “When there was 7.5 earthquake in Muzzafrabad, the impact was felt in Jammu, buildings were shaking. Everybody felt that it was a major earthquake, even though the damage was less because we are 425 kilometres away. But if we are within 50 km range, there is every possibility that there will be damage to the buildings, because our buildings are not compliant to the designs which are already there, For the construction purpose, we don't follow those standards and so we don't have earthquake resistant buildings. But those buildings which are maybe one or two storeyed, unless they are not properly constructed, less impact will be on them.
Talking about the precautionary measures to be taken, he said, “At least the buildings which are now being constructed should adhere to the rules and norms. There are permissions and checks in place that before constructing a building you have to submit a design and a plan of the type of building but is it implemented by the person while constructing the house? That is very important. On the papers, everybody is following the rules, but is it being implemented while construction because there is no check for that.”
Aamir Ali, Director of Department of Disaster Management told Kashmir Life, “It is very difficult to manage disaster in places like the old city which are very congested. The new colonies are being constructed in a way that keeps disaster management provisions in mind. But it is mainly the job of State Municipality to endure that the buildings adhere to the set standards of construction. We are making efforts to create awareness about disasters like earthquakes, fire prevention and even have 300 volunteers from each district that we train in disaster management.”