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More to be done to make challenge to BJP effective

By Satish Misra. Dated: 6/15/2018 11:43:52 AM

In fact outcome of 14 assembly and Lok Sabha by polls, held on May 28 in 11 states including the biggest state of Uttar Pradesh, has lessons for both the ruling BJP and the opposition. Euphoria notwithstanding, battle for the next general elections is wide open with victory likely for either camp.
While the opposition has taken 11 out of the 14 seats, the BJP has only three in its kitty. The BJP's vote share and its core constituency is almost intact with only a marginal knockdown.
Biggest state of Uttar Pradesh is a mighty challenge for the Modi-Shah duo. Conversely, it is the most decisive boost to the anti-BJP opposition while loss in other states is possible to make up by BJP's victories in other regions and states but losing a state that had elected 71 of its MPs would make retaining in power literally impossible. The BJP's allies had won another two seats from UP in 2014.
Defeat of the BJP candidate Mriganka Singh in Kariana Lok Sabha seat in western UP is the biggest setback for the BJP particularly in the backdrop of the loss of two Lok Sabha seats of prestigious Gorakhpur and Phulpur represented by UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya in March this year.
The BJP had won 71 seats in 2014 general elections. Kariana has only reconfirmed age-old observation of"united we win, divided we lose" which was followed by the opposition parties turning the contest into a direct fight. United opposition candidateTaassum Hasan won the seat with 44,618 votes.
Kairana was won by Hukum Singh by a margin of over 2, 30, 000 votes in 2014. Seat had fallen vacant after Hukum Singh died and the BJP had fielded his daughter MrigankaSignh to gain sympathy votes but the RahstriyaLok Dal candidate supported by the SP, BSP and the Congress roped home in a closely fought contest. The opposition-the SP- also wrested Noorpur assembly seat from the BJP.
The other victory of significance is that of the RJD in Bihar where it wrested Jokihat assembly seats from the JD (U) of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar by a convincing margin of over 41, 000 votes. Trinamool Congress of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee retained its assembly seat of Maheshtalawhile JMM won two seats in Jharkhand. The CPM won the assembly seat in Kerala.
The Congress won three assembly seats in Punjab, Karnataka and Meghalaya. By winning a seat in Meghalaya, the Congress has become the single largest party in state assembly and thus is in a position to stake a claim to form the government if the coalition government in the north-eastern state turns shaky and instable in future.
Victories of the opposition parties has convincingly exploded the myth of the invincibility of the RSS-BJP electoral machine that is controlled, supervised and run by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. Is it enough? Are numbers alone enough to take on the mighty BJP that is in power at the Centre as well as in 21 states?
Answer to above questions is an emphatic no written in capital letters. Opposition need to work hard striking alliances and evolving a new narrative of development and alternative vision of good governance, welfare and all round prosperity. Alliances need to be hammer out in a spirit of give and take. Leaders of the all the parties without an exception would need to ensure that animosities and rivalries of their respective cadres and leaders towards cadres and leaders of foe turn friendly parties are not obstacles but turn into creative energies.
Individual egos and personal ambitions of leaders would need to be set aside if the non-BJP opposition is indeed serious to defeat the BJP that poses a danger to democracy, rule of law, social and communal harmony.
Deal struck in Karnataka between the Congress and the JD (S) to smoothen the path of the coalition government paving the way for putting up a joint fight against the BJP in the next general election is a step in the right direction. Success of the ongoing talks between the Congress and the BSP for a pre-poll alliance for the coming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will prepare the ground for giving a credible fight to the BJP in the general elections,.Still much ground remains to be covered by the opposition parties to ignite the public perception and make it acceptable.
These developments particularly those from UP are a wakeup call to the BJP top leadership particularly to the Modi-Shah duo. The ruling party at the Centre and in 21 states on its own or with NDA allies has many advantages in its fight to capture people's support.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain the BJP's trump card as his popularity continues to be relatively high with people. The party has a formidable electoral machine and the most dedicated cadres and leaders. In BJP chief Amit Shah, the BJP has one of the most sharp electoral strategists whose skills have been proved many times.
Possessing huge funds that are many more times than its political opponents, the BJP is entering the general election battle with an upper hand but merely being resource rich may not be enough. The party, being in power, has many handles that it can use and will use to consolidate its position and drive wedges in the evolving opposition unity
(Dr. Satish Misra is a Veteran Journalist & Research Associate with Observer Research Foundation.)
—[IFS]